What’s getting occupied where?
Marine Corps Planning Process. 1) Mission Analysis 2) Course of Action Development 3) Course of Action wargame 4) Course of Action comparison and selection 5) Orders development 6) Transition.
Had Javier and I done proper MCPP (pronounced “McPeePee”) somewhere in there the occupation and secession threat over eastern Europe by Russia would have come up. Though now that I think about it, he did send me several emails with news clips that in hindsight seem very telling.
I normally plan my travel with regimented clarity vetted through something resembling the MCPP system. But this is Last Spring Break, no time for efficient planning. This is a time to wing it. Sort of, we did do some basic research into other offerings in the region after reaching the decision to Spring Break (yes, I will use it as a verb) in Moldova:
o Romania – definitely. I found some castles that would be fun to visit, Javier wanted to visit the site of Cousteceau’s execution, and there is a place in Bucharest where I could shoot exotic machineguns that are illegal in the U.S.
o Bulgaria – maybe, if we launch from Bucharest it’s not too far to drive but let’s leave it as a contingency.
o Wineries and monasteries around Moldova – absolutely.
o Ukraine – Javier suggested this one. I had some doubt as it seemed there were tensions in Ukraine. To assuage my concern, Javier recommended that maybe we instead play it safe and just limit ourselves to a day trip to Transnisteria. My better sense told me to read up on Transnistria (that’s a place?) before committing.
The Source of All Knowledge in the World (read: Wikipedia) identified Transnistria bluntly as a breakaway republic with no formal recognition by the U.S. and still heavily Russian with a decided bent towards Stalinism. This was the safer alternative to Ukraine? According to the State Department website, “Travel in Transnistria is generally safe for Americans, but if you get into trouble we can’t help you.” My legal mind wondered about the meaning of “can’t” in the sentence. Was it “can’t” or “won’t”? Did the difference matter? Transnistria was also apparently home to a Russian Army division. If Javier preferred this to Ukraine maybe I should read more about what was going on in Ukraine.
Things got progressively worse in Ukraine during my research. First, there were protests. Okay, but isn’t there, like, always protests in Ukraine? Then there were Russian troops occupying certain places. Not near the Moldovan border though, right? Then Crimea seceded. Now that sounds bad, but another law school friend that lived in Russia for a year assured me it wasn’t that big a deal. Crimea has always been populated by Russians, seen itself as part of Russia historically, and after all the U.S. supported secession in the Balkans throughout the 1990s and 2000s so Crimea’s situation isn’t a sign of war or impending regional doom. It’s democracy?
Then John McCain chimed in.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/john-mccain-moldova-russia-crimea-104816.html
Now, I love John McCain. I have no idea what happened to him around July 2008 when he supplanted his normal self for his Presidential candidate self, but I feel like John is gradually coming back to who he was/truly is. So when he says that Moldova is next in line to be occupied for/by the Russians, I take pause.
A few images spring to mind about what I’m about to walk into should Russian occupation be a thing that actually happens. All are based on film.
1) Remember that scene in “Atonement” when Britain’s Army is fleeing France at Dunkirk, and it’s complete pandemonium? Will Moldovans be down with a Russian occupation or flee with everything they can carry?
2) Remember that scene in “Casablanca” when Rick and Ilsa pop the champagne on the balcony of their Parisian flat; the sound of the cork only to be followed by the pop of artillery landing in the city? I’m not sure if Javier or me is Rick in that image.
3) What if the Russians actually do occupy and Javier and I get stuck? Back to “Casablanca.” Will Javier and I open “J&J Café Americain”? We’ll wait for our letters of transit to be smuggled in, only to fall in love with the wife of the leader of the Moldovan underground and conspire to flee to New York with her and leave her husband behind but at the last minute be struck by conscious and the personal sacrifices that must be made in the name of the march for freedom and let her and her husband fly away as I befriend the chief of Moldovan police?
4) What if – and this is the scenario that I really like, but you’ll have to follow me along for a bit – Javier and I become emissaries for the West. You know, he does political analysis for world news outlets anyway, and I watch the news sometimes. And the Russians occupy and find out we’re Americans and open negotiations with us on calming the West, but the UN wants us to push for them to stand down. Well my friends, you’ve found yourselves in the opening premise to Star Wars: Episode I.
a. Javier is Liam Neeson – wiser (on this topic anyway) overall, but prone to risks.
b. I’m Ewan MacGregor – still learning what is going on, but exercises greater caution and between the two of us I’m far more likely to cut Darth Maul in half.
Back to the mental image - the Russians bring us to their negotiating table and excuse themselves after a tense round of discussion – but then the room is gassed! Javier and I hold our breaths until the Russians assume we are dead and open the doors, but we surprise them and subdue them as we escape the building and hide in a transport truck driving to…well the plot of Episode I kind of went screwy from there so instead of a parallel I’ll just leave it as Javier and I are like Jedi and the Russians are the droid army.
Overall, I have to believe that occupations don’t just happen overnight, it was six years between occupation of Georgia and occupation of Crimea after all. Surely the next annexation won’t occur in the next ten days.
And who knows, maybe this is the best time to go. Maybe an occupied Moldova in the future will be subject to strict visa requirements that I wouldn’t otherwise qualify for (have you seen a Russian visa request? Technically you aren’t allowed to have gone to the bathroom). Maybe the mood of preoccupation will put everyone into festive resignation for the next week. I mean, if you knew you were about to be part of Russia (again) wouldn’t you want to party like a rock star?
Or maybe this was a bad idea.